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Fire Crux MerlinTier 1
at Grand Canyon DTR Store Championsip
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.7%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
50.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1284
· median 1284
· range 1256–1311
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1223
Q3 1374
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Water Genbu | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.8% | -10.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
